Campaings open with presidential surprises

The election campaigns for the 2007 National Elections on July 28 have begun. Unlike last year, we face clear conditions from the beginning onwards, since PPJ and SPS aswell as VCA and LUSC expressed their intent to form common coalitions. The nominations of the candidates for Presidency brought several premières to Saidercrayan politics. But let's have a look at all the big parties.

- The Party for Peace and Justice, PPJ: After three years as President of Saidercray, Ian Woshkal was not allowed to stand for this year's Presidential Election. The party members decided for Melanie Wathers, Minster of Foreign Affairs, as his successor both as candidate for Presidency and as party leader. Already now, she undertook the latter post from Woshkal to strengthen her position before the election.
For the political aims of the PPJ, the change towards Wathers means a change towards internationalism -as expressed in the campaign's motto "One nation in one world"- and towards some economic liberalism. The re-vitalisation of the IDUC is one of the PPJ’s main aims for 2008/2009. The party seems to aim at conquering the deserted social-democratic position without losing much of its old regular voters by "striking for a more moderately leftist policy than the socialists and a much more humane policy than the neoliberals and the conservatives."

- The Socialist Party of Saidercray, SPS: This year, the socialists’ leader herself, Angela Fintosthane, was chosen to apply for the state’s highest post, making this year the first one in which the majority of the Presidential candidates are women. Though critisizing the PPJ for its change in economical policy, Fintosthane didn’t allow any doubts towards whether the PPJ-SPS- coalition shall continue. The socialist campaign “One step further” intercedes for a more intensive continuation of the present policy.

- The Virtuous Conservative Alliance, VCA: Under the motto “At the brink of the abyss”, the VCA requires to undo the clear majority of the PPJ-SPS reforms over the last five years, from same-sex marriages to nationwide all-day schools, from the Conargo to the arms reduction. The party clearly committed itself to the LUSC after its shipwreck with the PPJ in 2007 and bolstered this by extensively turning in the capitalists’ economical course.

- The Liberal Union of Saidercrayan Capitalists, LUSC: “Entering the global way of success” is the title of the LUSC’s campaign which, as always, mainly deals with economical issues. The party promised to, if elected in government, join the IDU’s Free Trade Agreement, to privatize the whole Saidercrayan economy and to establish a low flat tax.

Both VCA and LUSC dispensed with a Presidential candidate of their own and nominated a common, non-party candidate – another novum for Saidercray. The conservative-capitalist candidate is Michael D. Stevens, who agrees to the VCA’s social and the LUSC’s economical opinions and became known by several polarising books in which he commented on the policy of Saidercray.

The small mono-thematical parties Green Democratic Party, Multinational Party for Immigrants, National Electoral Offensive and Saidercrayan Women’s Feminist Party didn’t nominate candidates for Presidency. The MPI and the SWFP clearly distanced from a coalition with the VCA, while the GDP declared that it could also imagine a conservative-capitalist-green coalition. The NEO doesn’t want to join next term’s government.

Right after the capaign openings ended, first representative polls were carried out, and Saidercray Today has the results. In brackets, we show the parties’ results in the 2007 National Election.

PPJ: 30 (27)

SPS: 22 (25)

VCA: 21 (17)

LUSC: 13 (17)

MPI: 6 (6)

GDP: 6 (8)

SWFP: 1 (0)

NEO: 1(0)

The Parliamentary Election steers for the next victory for PPJ and SPS. There is no doubt that these two will build a coaliton, either alone or together with one or two smaller parties. Politologists analysing the poll say that the PPJ’s new course opened the party for some non-socialist LUSC voters aswell as for soft-core socialists from the SPS who formerly missed a clear eligible economical alternative. The attestation of the socially liberal course made conservative PPJ voters, which the party also had for long years, vote for the VCA. The LUSC lost those voters who wanted to protest against the VCA’s coalition plan last year by voting for the then scorned party.

In the Presidential Election, the situation is as excting as it is predictable in the Parliamentary. He are the poll results:

- Melanie Wathers (PPJ): 38

- Michael Stevens (VCA & LUSC): 35

- Harry Old (SPS): 27

To explain this results, it helps to realise that VCA and LUSC together stand already at 34%. Empirical data say that the majority of those who vote for MPI or GDP tend to vote for the PPJ’s Presidential candidate due to all three parties’ social liberalism. Old, the socialist candidate, simply doesn’t get enough votes from the small party voters to equalize the PPJ’s advantage of his party, which is an advantage of 8% at the moment.

While it already occured that the President came from the second strongest party of a coalition, this year’s election might result in the very new and very interesting situation that the President, if he will be Michael Stevens, doesn’t have any majority in the parliament.

idunews