The end of eternity
Saidercray's left after the schism
September 2006: Re-elected president Ian Woshkal, PPJ, and his deputy, the socialist Harry Old, present the new coalition agreement for the legislative period 2006/2007. It seals the fifth PPJ-SPS coalition in series. When Old speaks of an "eternal alliance" between socialists and left-wing liberals, a crowd cheers which could serve as a cross-section of the nation's political left.
For the coalition united everything what is left, overcame the internationally widespread division of the leftists, which weakens them in many countries. It was the alliance of two collecting basins which perfectly complemented each other. The SPS, as classical left party, adressed workers, unemployed, retirees and other socially disadvantaged people whose position and conditions of life it wanted to improve. It united marxists who dreamed of doing this in a revolutionary way and democratic socialists who were always dominant in the government and aimed at reallocation of assets, extension of the social services a.s.o. And where the SPS wasn't well received, there began clientele of the PPJ, a left-wing party for the intellectual bourgeoisie who pocketed all the members of the middle and upper classes who care about the nation's and the world's poor. Further, it also gained the votes of many critics of globalisation and of pacifists.
All this has been topical until one year ago. But the political crisis of the last months, which was predominantly a crisis of the political left, showed one thing: The party who wanted to overcome capitalism and the party who wanted to shape it in a way which should ensure that everybody would profit from it and no-one would left behind, they were no lovers. What made them stick together despite these differences was the perspective of power which, for both parties, ultimately only existed with if they collaborated with the other one. When this perspective had ceased to exist after Stevens's victory in the presidential election 2007, it took only a short time until the claim to power disunited the two parties instead of unifying them, when differences became highlighted instead of commonalities. The PPJ's party program of January 2008, which refuted socialism, and the rise of Stalinist Ron Glean within the SPS are the clearest signs for a development which smouldered already for a long time on both sides and which only success could prevent from flourishing. Could.
Facing the chaos we experienced then during the last nine months, it sound almost surreal that at least for the CPS and for the two big right-wing parties, we can see rather clear prospects for the nearer future. Uncertain, instead, is primarily the development of the MLPP. But let's deal with them sequentially. The CPS probably will reduce bit by bit to its radical core since the extremists are afloat and will frighten off and/or redline the remaining moderate forces and their adherents. Since Glean's coup, it defines itself as an antagonist of all other parties and the system they represent. This will reduce the parliamentary influence of the CPS, which on its part will then reinforce anti-parliamentarian tendencies and make the communist party aiming at a closing of ranks with non-parliamentarian groups. Working towards the big revolution loses its alternatives. If everything goes well, the CPS becomes as harmless as the NEO on the extreme right wing. If not, we will have a problem, so caution is advised.
While the CPS will be a loser of the crisis, the opposite holds true for the LUSC and the VAC. Neoliberals and conservatives had and used many opportunities to present themselves as forces who moderate, are interested in a politics dealing with problems outside the individual parties and who augur stability. This will provide them with a lot of votes in the next elections. These gains can thoroughly be permanent depending on how the two parties will act after the elections and on how strongly the people are frustrated of the left parties.
This, again, will mainly be shown by the fate of the MLPP, which is now the clear left-wing hegemon. As such, it can become the second big loser or the second big winner. In the best case, the former moderate part of the SPS now serves as the classical social-democratic section the PPJ never had, and brings along votes from the working class. This can outweigh the losses which will result of the voters' disappointment after the crisis and stabilize the MLPP around the same result the PPJ has achieved in recent elections, 30% +- 5%. But also the opposite case is possible, that the amalgamation of PPJ and half of the SPS will decompose as rapidly as it developped. Either because the ex SPS members could feel marginalized by the concentrated power of the former PPJ, or because the latter one could see the newbies from the more traditional left party as stumbling blocks in the process of modernization which the PPJ had just heralded towards the end of the Woshkal era.
But notwithstanding how powerful the MLPP will be or not be, the parliamentary dominance of the left wing in which no coalition without the PPJ was possible is broken. In future elections, beginning with this year's one, we will experience a competition between two approximately equally strong blocks, one consisting of the VCA and the LUSC, the other one of the MLPP and the two small parties GDP and MPI. One can only hope that politics will use this new situation and other appropriate means like the new election law to make up for the disenchantment with politics the passed year has created. Then Saidercray could even profit from the crisis which then would have removed outdated inherited burdens of the political system without having caused to much sustainable problems. But here again, the best case scenario is accompanied by an equally possible worst case one.
--- This article has been first published in the printed edition of Saidercray Today, Sunday, June 22, 2008, p. 3-5.
September 2006: Re-elected president Ian Woshkal, PPJ, and his deputy, the socialist Harry Old, present the new coalition agreement for the legislative period 2006/2007. It seals the fifth PPJ-SPS coalition in series. When Old speaks of an "eternal alliance" between socialists and left-wing liberals, a crowd cheers which could serve as a cross-section of the nation's political left.
For the coalition united everything what is left, overcame the internationally widespread division of the leftists, which weakens them in many countries. It was the alliance of two collecting basins which perfectly complemented each other. The SPS, as classical left party, adressed workers, unemployed, retirees and other socially disadvantaged people whose position and conditions of life it wanted to improve. It united marxists who dreamed of doing this in a revolutionary way and democratic socialists who were always dominant in the government and aimed at reallocation of assets, extension of the social services a.s.o. And where the SPS wasn't well received, there began clientele of the PPJ, a left-wing party for the intellectual bourgeoisie who pocketed all the members of the middle and upper classes who care about the nation's and the world's poor. Further, it also gained the votes of many critics of globalisation and of pacifists.
All this has been topical until one year ago. But the political crisis of the last months, which was predominantly a crisis of the political left, showed one thing: The party who wanted to overcome capitalism and the party who wanted to shape it in a way which should ensure that everybody would profit from it and no-one would left behind, they were no lovers. What made them stick together despite these differences was the perspective of power which, for both parties, ultimately only existed with if they collaborated with the other one. When this perspective had ceased to exist after Stevens's victory in the presidential election 2007, it took only a short time until the claim to power disunited the two parties instead of unifying them, when differences became highlighted instead of commonalities. The PPJ's party program of January 2008, which refuted socialism, and the rise of Stalinist Ron Glean within the SPS are the clearest signs for a development which smouldered already for a long time on both sides and which only success could prevent from flourishing. Could.
Facing the chaos we experienced then during the last nine months, it sound almost surreal that at least for the CPS and for the two big right-wing parties, we can see rather clear prospects for the nearer future. Uncertain, instead, is primarily the development of the MLPP. But let's deal with them sequentially. The CPS probably will reduce bit by bit to its radical core since the extremists are afloat and will frighten off and/or redline the remaining moderate forces and their adherents. Since Glean's coup, it defines itself as an antagonist of all other parties and the system they represent. This will reduce the parliamentary influence of the CPS, which on its part will then reinforce anti-parliamentarian tendencies and make the communist party aiming at a closing of ranks with non-parliamentarian groups. Working towards the big revolution loses its alternatives. If everything goes well, the CPS becomes as harmless as the NEO on the extreme right wing. If not, we will have a problem, so caution is advised.
While the CPS will be a loser of the crisis, the opposite holds true for the LUSC and the VAC. Neoliberals and conservatives had and used many opportunities to present themselves as forces who moderate, are interested in a politics dealing with problems outside the individual parties and who augur stability. This will provide them with a lot of votes in the next elections. These gains can thoroughly be permanent depending on how the two parties will act after the elections and on how strongly the people are frustrated of the left parties.
This, again, will mainly be shown by the fate of the MLPP, which is now the clear left-wing hegemon. As such, it can become the second big loser or the second big winner. In the best case, the former moderate part of the SPS now serves as the classical social-democratic section the PPJ never had, and brings along votes from the working class. This can outweigh the losses which will result of the voters' disappointment after the crisis and stabilize the MLPP around the same result the PPJ has achieved in recent elections, 30% +- 5%. But also the opposite case is possible, that the amalgamation of PPJ and half of the SPS will decompose as rapidly as it developped. Either because the ex SPS members could feel marginalized by the concentrated power of the former PPJ, or because the latter one could see the newbies from the more traditional left party as stumbling blocks in the process of modernization which the PPJ had just heralded towards the end of the Woshkal era.
But notwithstanding how powerful the MLPP will be or not be, the parliamentary dominance of the left wing in which no coalition without the PPJ was possible is broken. In future elections, beginning with this year's one, we will experience a competition between two approximately equally strong blocks, one consisting of the VCA and the LUSC, the other one of the MLPP and the two small parties GDP and MPI. One can only hope that politics will use this new situation and other appropriate means like the new election law to make up for the disenchantment with politics the passed year has created. Then Saidercray could even profit from the crisis which then would have removed outdated inherited burdens of the political system without having caused to much sustainable problems. But here again, the best case scenario is accompanied by an equally possible worst case one.
--- This article has been first published in the printed edition of Saidercray Today, Sunday, June 22, 2008, p. 3-5.
posted by oculus @ 19:11
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